Has Farage made a Strategic Error in ‘Cosying-up’ to Trump and Musk ?

Much was made in the media a week or so ago about the various meetings Nigel Farage had ‘across the pond’ with the President Elect and his current ‘right hand man’, Elon Musk. It also emerged that Musk had offered ‘hundreds of millions’ to support Reform campaign in future UK elections. After a somewhat stunned and incredulous reaction in UK, there was something of an outcry amongst the other UK political parties against what was seen as unfair advantage.

While it wouldn’t be against current electoral rules for a donor to contribute a large sum to Reform, and both of  the major parties have received donations to the tune of single-figure millions in the past, the excessive amounts Musk is reputed to be offering would ‘upset the apple cart’ politically. I predict that limits on donations will now quickly be introduced by Labour. That still leaves Musk the possibility of beating any limit on individual donations by employing multiple-company approaches. I doubt whether even 'artful dodger' Farage would get away with that strategy, though, particularly since it would be obvious where the money had really come from, and very little 'skulduggery' can be hidden from today’s voracious media. There may thus also need to be a ceiling on the maximum donated to a party during any one campaign, which would, of course, be more contentious.

Farage’s real problem is not so much the immediate donations row, but how far to risk Reform's fortunes by developing his transatlantic relationship in the future….

A second Trump term is, unfortunately, a fact of life now - we can do little to mitigate whatever ill-effects it produces, and we must all adapt accordingly. Fortunately, Trump is quite anglophile in his outlook, having a Scottish mother and an evident high regard for things British generally, which should help our UK interests. He also approves of our recently acquired ‘independence’ from the EU. Farage certainly isn’t the only one courting Trump’s favour at present - Starmer himself is still trying desperately to erase the ill-will generated by some of Lammy’s choicest remarks against Trump whilst in opposition. He would be wise to continue his efforts apace if he wants to maintain the ‘special relationship’, and stand any chance of avoiding punitive trade sanctions on UK products. Simply sending 'the Mandelson' over as the new ambassador on a ‘charm offensive’ may not quite swing it if VP Vance's remarks are anything to go by.

Musk, however, is a different ‘kettle of fish’ altogether. His ‘hobby’ purchase of Twitter for £44Bn and its subsequent ruination alone has made him very unpopular, both in UK and around the globe, and he is now seen by many to represent the worst elements of an ‘out of control and over-indulged Big Tech’. In the light of his unpopularity here, why then is he bothering to take such a close interest in our political system at all ? There are various theories, the most plausible of which is that he fears curbs being introduced on 'free speech', particularly on social media, will adversely affect his media interests. He obviously abhors any form of government control or censorship of media output and favours unfettered capitalism as a universal doctrine. This has brought him into direct conflict with the Starmer government, who are gearing up to exert more, rather than less, control on the social media companies on the back of the summer riots here. 

His actions haven't exactly endeared him to the UK 'man in the street'. At a time when most of us are still struggling with the cost of living crisis, unaffordable heating costs and a failing health service, the idea of someone who clearly has ‘more money than sense’ using it to buy whatever of our institutions he chooses, and basically do whatever he likes with them, does not go down at all well. Buying his way openly into our political system would be seen as 'red rag to a bull' for many - and an open threat to our democracy.

Farage would therefore do well to take a step back at this stage and reassess his options.... 

If he continues on his current pathway and accepts whatever donations are offered, he will then be ‘in hock’ to Trump/Musk between now and the next election. If Starmer manages to go full term, this will probably be in May 2029, just after the end of Trump’s last 4-year ‘adventure’. An over-close association with whatever chaos Trump has managed to cause in the intervening 4 years may not do Reform’s election prospects much good.

Given the risks, what are Farage's real motives in all this ? His principal objective at present seems to be to establish Reform as the primary opposition party by displacing the Tories and Lib Dems. He will be banking on our first past the post electoral system 'coming apart at the seams' as a result of a hung parliament in 2029. This, and the introduction of some form of PR, is the only way he would be able to make much progress against the 2 major parties. 

This assumption is probably over-optimistic. If our local by-election barometer is true to form, Labour will almost certainly receive a drubbing at the next election, with many of the Tory 2024 'desertees' returning to the fold to remove Starmer. Labour are unlikely to secure a majority, and with much of the national vote returning to a re-juvenated Tory party, the Lib Dems are likely to decline back into their customary low double figure norm with Reform in single figures again. The likelihood of either major party agreeing to a coalition with Farage in this situation would be virtually nil, so we're likely to see a return to the fractious hung-parliament scenario we saw in the May era over Brexit in the run up to Boris' 2019 victory. 

Why then is Farage taking the inherent risk of 'cosying up' to the Trump team, given Trump's unpopularity in UK ? He probably sees himself gaining political advantage by reflecting the 'glory of the 'MAGA' movement in the US over here as a 'MEGA' version i.e. Make England Great Again (MUKGA doesn't roll off the tongue quite as well, and in any case its inclusion of those 'troublesome lesser' home nations might not be quite in tune with Reform's objectives.)

If I were head of any of the other UK opposition parties, I would now be revelling in my ‘early political Christmas present’, and hoping against hope that Farage falls further into the trap, rather than ‘quaking in my boots’ as some pundits were predicting last week.

And what of prospects for Trump vs Musk ? 

Although these two do seem to be appallingly 'loved-up' at present, I confidently predict fireworks ahead (hence the use of the 'vs' abbreviation). It's almost inevitable that two strong, wilful and emotionally unstable characters used to getting their own way such as these will clash eventually. Musk sees himself as the god-given 'protector of free speech' and is determined to resist the stranglehold the establishments in both the EU and UK are trying to exert on social media platforms. He is already showing signs of 'getting uppity' in the Trump 'camp', and as an un-elected paid close advisor, he will always be vulnerable to fall from grace, and very rapidly at that. Henry 8th's relationship with Thomas Cromwell might offer an interesting comparison, with the Boris-Cummings and Starmer-Grey splits in more recent UK history as more up to date parallels without the head removals. Musk certainly won't be inconvenienced by the loss of his pay check when he falls out of favour, though! He will, however, need to take care that the split isn't too acrimonious, ...if Trump really 'takes against' Big Tech as a result, it won't just be Musk that loses out.

A strange world indeed…..and everything to play for - on both sides of the pond.

Update 6.1.25: Q.E.D! An interested observer could be forgiven for thinking that Musk seems to be at pains to insult and denigrate as many European leaders as he can before Trump takes office. If this guy really gets into a position of power in the Trump government, heaven help the Western world....and Trump. Eat your heart out, Nige - best to look elsewhere for your party funding from now on.

First Published 20.12.24

Revised 6.1.25