What are Labour’s prospects in future elections ?

I first published this blog immediately after the last general election when Labour were seen as the peoples' choice and the best hope for the future. What a difference a day makes....

Given the Labour Leadeship's abysmal popularity ratings, Reform's success in the local elections on May 1st was anticipated, but it's extent certainly wasn't. It's obvious now that this wasn't just a 'punishment vote' against Labour, but a wholesale rejection of the old 2-party system with its perpetuation of periodic swaps between the two 'old guard' major parties to the exclusion of the others. Even the Lib Dems did barely more than tread water this time. 

The message is a clear one - the UK electorate are clearly desperate to see an improvement in their morale and fortunes after a prolonged period of decline - if the old guard can't provide it, they will simply vote them out and try someone new. 

The caveats: It remains to be seen whether Reform can actually break the stranglehold on power our 'first past the post' system has given the 2 main parties hitherto. We should also be wary of assuming that what happens at a mid-term council election will necessarily be reflected in 2029. 

One thing is certain, though...if Labour do manage to scrape back into government on a divided vote in 2029, they are unlikely to have an overall majority. We can at least heave a sigh of relief on that prospect.....

The majority of what I put forward last July still holds - See also the update at the end of this article for more insights as to what might come next....

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Although 2029 is a long way ahead, and Labour's leadership and cabinet will be focused on more immediate policy decisions, their advance planners should already be thinking hard about their electoral prospects…and not just for the next general election.

The reason why they should be concerned at this early stage is that the next tranche of local elections are only a little under 3 months away, so the first ‘day of reckoning’ at the ballot box is, relatively speaking, nigh.

Does this really matter, though, given their huge majority in parliament ?

The answer is that it does…the hard reality is that the brunt of any early disapproval of the new government by the electorate (and there’s plenty of that around just now!) will fall on local Labour councillors, many of whom come up for re-election this year and will be worried about retaining their seats on May 1^st. If, as seems quite possible, Labour suffer a whitewash in these polls, it will signal they are 'getting it wrong' as a party in the eyes of the electorate, and will have much more ground to recover later in the electoral cycle to stand any chance of being re-elected.

In one sense, this potential 'rout' of sitting councillors is a pity. Local politics is by its nature less overtly political than the national variety, and involves a lot more cross-party collaboration (it simply has to, in order to get things done at a local level). A lot of good, hardworking and experienced Labour councillors may well lose their seats in May as a result of their national leadership's ill-advised policy decisions, with the attendant loss of their collective expertise and enthusiasm to local government. Sadly, it’s virtually impossible to protect local councillors from the effects of national government unpopularity, so there will be a toll to reckon with, given that the Westminster leadership have shown little or no contrition for their 'sins' to date. Starmer's recent effforts, such as they are, on the diplomatic front are unlikely to suffice, given his many 'faux pas' on the home front.

An additional factor to consider is that many local councils ‘went Labour’ during the Tory wipeouts of the last 2 years, and thus a significant number of currently Labour-controlled LAs may well be at risk of the party losing overall control if they lose concillors in significant numbers. This will not please ‘grass roots’ supporters, who will doubtless blame Starmer and Reeves for all their ills (including a continued lack of LA funding - witness the resulting refuse-ridden chaos in our 2nd city, Birmingham!). This unpopularity in the ranks could create even more divisions within the party, who won’t have forgotten having their Winter Fuel restoration resolution at Conference first sidelined, and then studiously ignored, by the leadership. The unions are already starting to 'get tough', now that the axe has fallen on the super-inflationary pay rises that were characteristic of Labour's first couple of months. We may soon find our streets covered with refuse 'a la Birmingham' if Unite (who, you may remeber, were the union so effectively snubbed at conference in October over their restore Winter Fuel motion) extend their strike to a country wide walkout.

Can we predict how bad things might get for Labour ?

Opinion polls are the most obvious and popular choice for assessing voting intentions for future general elections. The majority of these currently put Labour support significantly lower than it was immediately post-election, with losses of between 6 and 10 percentage points. The latest YouGov poll (Mar 11th) actually puts Labour just 1 point ahead of Reform, with even the Tories hot on their heels at 22%.  Interestingly, though, the opinion polls also seem to indicate that the Tories appear to have gained relatively little from this downturn in Labour's fortunes so far. 

This might at first sight be what one would expect at this stage of the cycle, given the Tories spell in ‘rehab’ is still in its early stages, with their new leader yet to make a real impression, and wisely avoiding making detailed promises on policy, but there is some evidence that their opinion poll fortunes are slowly reviving.

However, other, and arguably perhaps more reliable indicators of public voting intentions, might suggest a different trend. Let's look at a more immediate register of how the electorate are feeling, i.e. local by-elections. How much we should read into Labour’s loss of popularity with regard to local election prospects? 

Opinion polls are, at best, a blunt instrument when it comes to predictions on voting outcomes ‘on the day’, and acknowledge that they often get it wrong. Things have also become harder to predict in recent years, with our electorate becoming progressively more ‘volatile’ and unfathomable, with traditional voter loyalty very much on the decrease.

We do, however, have a less well-used barometer of voter sentiment available in the form of local by-election results. Since this represents real performance data, it is arguably a better indicator than opinion polls, whose representative small sampling technique really just gives a 'snapshot' of immediate sentiment within a small selected group, and can easily miss longer-term changes as a result.

We can of course also use the constituency by-election method for predictions of General Election prospects, but the main problem there is that constituency by-elections are relatively few and far between. The sampling statistics they generate are therefore too sparse to be reliable, particularly a long way ahead of a general election. 

Local council by-elections, on the other hand, are much more frequent, arising as they do whenever a councillor either moves house, suffers illness, or just simply gets fed up with the thankless task they’ve taken on, and resigns their position. This means we get a much better, and arguably more reliable, picture of how things are going from week to week, with respect to overall grass-roots voter sentiment across the country. Some might argue that results reflect too much the immediate local issues to be representative, but voters do tend to admit when challenged that their feelings about the national government do 'colour their judgment' when voting locally, hence it's reasonable to assume some validity.

There are various online sources for these statistics. I’ve provided a link to one of the more reliable ones, which provides a regularly-updated summary. The table below this text shows the latest results summary.

The current stats are quite interesting, and confirm that the trend away from Labour is persisting at the local level, and has done so since August last year. This is a direct consequence of the degree of unpopularity the current government has already brought upon itself by its treatment of pensioners, its cave-ins to the public sector unions with exorbitant wage settlements, and its apparent complete disdain for the business sector and the farming industry in favour of 'the workers'. (Labour have struggled to produce a useful definition of this term when challenged on its modern-day relevance - this may be because, like the 'working class' of yester-year, it is arguable as to whether it still actually exists as a homogeneous group in our highly diverse multi-ethnic society).   

The most recent data confirm that none of the the post-budget update figures to date show any signs of improvement, and thus do not augur well for Labour. 

Looking at the distribution of Labour's lost seats, the net loss of 24, with a net gain of 23 for  the Conservatives, with the few remaining seats changing hands between the minor parties (see table below) speaks volumes. It's also noteworthy that the Lib Dems, who profited handsomely from the Tories unpopularity in July, and have been vying with the Tories (and Reform!) for the title of principal opposition party ever since, have made no gains and have lost two council seats. One item of particular note,as mentioned previously, is that the Tory gains aren’t reflected in any of the current opinion poll predictions. This begs the question as to which technique is a better indicator of voting intentions.

But doesn’t this apparent loss of support just reflect the well-established ‘mid-term unpopularity effect’, whereby by-election results often result in a trouncing for the ruling party’s candidate on the back of government unpopularity ?

I suspect not – it's still too early in the cycle for that to apply. Apart from anything else, we are by no means anywhere near mid-term yet, and a government as new as this one would normally be given the benefit of the doubt by its electorate for at least its first 6-9 months in office. Labour was, after all, given an unusually strong mandate (at least in terms of its majority, despite only polling 20% of the electorate), and as electors, those of us who didn't vote Tory will be naturally reluctant to admit they made the wrong choice this early on in the 5-year term. The fact that support for this particular government plummeted so dramatically in just their first 3 months, and has remained alarmingly low ever since, indicates that something really has gone wrong....and that Labour have a 'popularity  mountain' to climb before 2029.

Will we get any corroboration of this trend from constituency by-elections ?

Probably not, at least for some time - this is a relatively young parliament with a large number of 'virgin' labour MPs. Many of the ‘old guard’ (both Labour and Tory) either stood down before the election or lost their seats on polling day, so we would expect very few constituency by-elections at this stage of the game. Any further ‘defectors’ from Labour are likely to either go independent or switch allegiance to another party, rather than resigning their seats. Thus we will have to rely on the local results, and to an extent the opinion polls, to judge.

Starmer seems to set great store by dismissing any need to be seen as a ‘popular’ and charismatic leader (he would in any case have a job achieving either!), but is desperate to overcome his reputation for weakness, and appear to be a strong one. His strategy is clearly to 'get the pain over with' in the early stages of his 'reign' and hope the electorate will have forgotten it all by 2029. He has also set much store by strenuous efforts on the diplomatic front, spearheading the 'coalition of the willing' and ingratiating himself with Trump at every opportunity.

He may well find this approach comes back to bite him if he continues to ignore his electorate…his 'legions' of new back-benchers, many of whom will have already felt the 'chill wind of constituency disapproval' in their mailboxes as a reward for their loyalty to Starmer over the more controversial issues, may soon start wondering whether he is becoming a liability rather than an asset. The most surprising thing in all this is perhaps the number of different groups he has managed to alienate by disadvantaging them in some way, and the speed with which he has achieved this. The old maxim "..fools rush in where angels fear to tread." certainly springs to mind here....

Starmer's real problem, though, is that as his electors, and ultimately the determinants of his fate, we have long memories......especially if we have been directly affected by his decisions. Quite a few of the 10 million pensioners he deprived summarily of their winter fuel allowance and who voted Labour in July certainly won't do it again...ever. And that certainly won't help his party's vote share next time round, or the next....."...a pensioner's goodwill is for life...not just for electoral Christmas.."

Update 5.2.25: You can see from their latest 'trick' just how concerned Labour now are about their growing unpopularity...and the electoral effects it is likely to have.

 Angela Rayner's announcement that Local Council Elections scheduled for May '25 were going to be postponed, and the lame excuse that went with it, smacks of growing desperation. 

Is this a big deal for Starmer' regime ? Undoubtedly - by interfering with due electoral process in this way, Starmer is using the sort of 'Trumpian' approach to our institutions that his party's old arch enemy over the water favours, in the hope that his super-majority in parliament will allow him to get away with it. 

However, postponement is not cancellation - that really would raise constitutional issues - and big-time. In doing this now, he and Rayner accumulate yet another 'black mark' against their adminstration's name, and merely defer 'judgement day' for a year or so. Things may well have gone from bad to worse by then, given our flat-lining economy and the significant rise in inflation just predicted by BOE which is to come over the intervening year. The local government reorganisation will also have angered many local electors by then, with consequences for Labour's vote share.  The number of Labour seats at enhanced risk will also be much larger, and by May '26 we will also be within 3 years of the next general election......In the meantime the regime will have a fight on its hands with many (mostly labour-controlled) LAs up in arms about what the wholesale revamp of Local Government has done to them.....

Whoever is giving Starmer 'advice' on strategy should be thinking about their position..a P45 beckons, I suspect (wonder if it's a cunning plot by Elon in disguise - perhaps DOGE has set its sights on regime change in UK to facilitate us becoming the 51st state??!).

Update 12.4.25: The trend continues with the Tories continuing to take the lion's share of the Labour losses. Reform is also beginning to catch up with the Tories and may overrtake them if dissatisfaction with the 2-party system really takes hold. This correlates quite well with the increasing unpopularity of the Labour leadership, and the party in general, as the effects of the swingeing budget measures announced in October and November really begin to bite, and the economy falters. The leadership's obdurate unwillingness to consider any form of mitigation to soften the blows won't have helped them, either. His recent 'junketings' on the diplomatic front are unlikely to redeem him in voters' eyes long-term, particularly if Trump turns even nastier with Europe, the 10% tariff remains in place, and Starmer is seen by Trump as complicit in Europe's defiance against a future Trump-Putin 'carve up' of Ukraine and its resources.

The fact that Starmer has also already 'inspired' not one  but two (sorry, three now) of his brightest young (and female) ministers to resign, may well have already 'started the rot' within the back-bench contingent. His hitherto loyal cabinet may also quite reasonably be wondering who's next for the chop......

On present performance, I give him another 6-9 months....stand by for the first Hunger Games-style 'reaping' on May 1st.....

Update 3.5.25: What a Difference a Day Makes....

Reform UK are certainly on a roll just now, with both major parties licking their wounds, and a whole bunch of aggrieved Lab and Con local councillors, many of whom have worked tirelessly for their communities for many years, are now thrown out on their collective ear. But why is this happening now ?

Our 'barometer' in the form of council by-election results certainly predicted the backlash against Starmer's policies and a 'good kicking for Labour' at the first opportunity the electoral calendar provided. It was also beginning to show the rapid progress Reform were making in 'stealing' seats from the Tories, who were looking pretty good at hoovering up most of the Labour losses until late-Autumn last year. What it didn't predict was the scale of Reform's inroads country-wide....

To assess the true impact of the vote, we should first take a step back and consider what seats were at stake this time in relation to the full local electoral landscape. Most of the council seats up for grabs were in the Shire counties, where the Tories were riding high after Boris'  'vaccine bounce' at the time they were last contested in 2021, so they undoubtedly had a lot more seats to lose than Labour this time round. 

 

The electors obviously haven't yet forgiven the Tories as the party of previous 'misdemeanours' in government, particularly 'Partygate' and the long grind of Austerity 1.0. Kemi Badenough, who quite sensibly decided to 'keep her powder dry' on detailed policy issues until much closer to the next general election in 2029, now faces some real soul-searching as to whether her leadership is at risk if she persists with this course. There are already rumblings about leadership challenges in the party (the Tories have plenty of form for throwing out any leader with more than an ounce of ability or charisma) , and Kendrick's emphatic 'vote of confidence' yesterday might well actually indicate the opposite. Party schisms aside, more effort is certainly required on the Tories' part to start countering the 'Reform frenzy' that seems to have overtaken electors, if they are to head off  a complete wipe-out at the hands of Reform in 2029.

 

The other factor to consider is the seats that weren't up for grabs this time, and how this related to future prospects...

The effect overall on party seat number tallies this time round is actually fairly small - as you can see from the table, the main losers in percentage terms were the Tories. Even they only suffered a 13.4% fall in their overall seat total, the main beneficiaries being Reform, gaining most of the seats the Tories lost, at least in numeric terms. 

 

What was more important, and will enable us to 'test Reform's mettle', was changes in councils' overall control. Reform gained 10, with the Tories losing 16, and Labour only 1. In addition, many more councils have no overall control than previously, and now have a dominant Reform presence, giving them the opportunity to force through real policy changes.

 

This will provide an interesting test for Reform i.e. can they actually translate their promises of real change into action effectively, and will their promised budget-slashing policies make them any friends ? They have quite a long time to mess things up spectacularly before 2029, given they have little experience of co-operative local government, and some pretty risky ideas. We shall see, no doubt.

And what of Labour ? Their net loss of  187 seats, with only 98 actually won, and the loss of overall control of 3 of their councils, sends a pretty clear message to my mind. 

 

Will they take note of the electors' warning and moderate their policies ? Not a bit of it, if Starmer's response in the media yesterday was anything to go by. 

 

The impression the 'great man' gave, (in true Churchillian style - no doubt in an attempt to 'milk' the VE Day sentiment) was that he intends to go even farther and faster with his existing plans - after all, he knows best what is good for us, doesn't he, and we just need to 'take the medicine' and stop complaining.....his dogged assertion to the press on Friday that "...he gets it" is about as far from reality as it could be, and suggests his refusal to admit his mistakes is grounded in some sort of fantasy world. 

 

Sounds familiar, perhaps ? You've only to look east (or indeed west nowadays) an you'll find similar leadership 'syndromes' at the top of the political trees....

 

Time will tell where treating his electors like rebellious school-children gets him...pensioners are still up in arms about the loss of their winter fuel payments and form ca 15-20% of the electorate at the last count. Canvassers for Labour this time round cite this as one of the principal issues on the doorstep. Given that Starmer is unlikely to back down on this 'flagship' policy, I suspect the next set of council elections may be more damaging still for the party, given that a lot more 'traditional' Labour seats will be up for grabs next year. 

 

It's also of note that there has also been a fair bit of disquiet in the party as to the direction of travel, and grass roots canvassers have mentioned time and again voters' widespread insistence that "..Labour just aren't Labour anymore...". I'm sure Starmer would actually agree with that concept, although he would of course never admit it to the press. His mission since taking the leadership, after all, has been to 'rid the party of Corbynism and all its left wing evils', thereby changing it for ever. Whether the Party is altogether happy with the consequences of his purge, is another matter.

 

And he has another little problem to worry about - by-elections. Although losing a few seats won't make a ha'p'orth of difference to his ridiculously large parliamentary majority, the resounding loss of Labour's first parliamentary by-election may also have provided him (and more importantly his back-benchers) some additional food for thought, given the huge swing that it represented, from a traditional safe Labour seat with a 14,000 majority last July to a narrow Reform win .....you can't really just dismiss that as 'mid-term blues', and many on the back benches will already be worried about their futures.

 

Momentum are still waiting in their chance.....so watch your back, Sir Keir....or better still...don't !

 

 

Watch this space for more updates....

First published 6.11.24

Revised 8.5.25