UK Removing all Covid legal restraints including requirement for Self-isolation following positive LF test – a critical appraisal

This move by HM Government was predictable in the current political climate, and well publicised in advance. It will be welcomed by some, and inspire dread in others, given that it puts UK very much 'out on a limb' compared to other nations (and a fragile limb at that, given the intensity of recent and future storms).

The rationale behind the move draws extensively on a reliance that the warmer weather and the application of 'personal responsibility' will keep the virus in check. I fear this may prove to be misguided on both counts....

The steady waning of immunity over time we have seen with this particular coronavirus will necessitate frequent boosting to keep the virus at bay, and not just for the elderly.  It is not surprising, given our experience over the years with the 4 'endemic' coronaviruses responsible for common cold infections. 

None of our vaccines prevent infection, although they do raise the threshold for infection somewhat. The need to maintain immunity hasn't really been addressed in the plans submitted so far and may well in any case fall by the wayside on cost and resource grounds, particularly if other more pressing demands on the exchequer are seen to be more urgent. 

It’s noteworthy that the other devolved nations are taking a much more cautious approach, retaining legal requirements for longer, and committing as far as they can to continued testing and boosting. 'Covid fatigue' set in some months ago UK-wide, and the onset of spring has reinforced  the demand to be free of the Covid shackles of the past 2 years. Most have already forgotten the need to observe social distancing and other barrier methods, and we have seen a substantial increase in case numbers which is only now beginning to peak. As predicted, the virus is having a field day....

We will undoubtedly see the development of more variants of concern, some of which may have a higher 'kill rate' than any previous variants. Escapes from vaccinated immunity are also more likely as selection pressure on the virus continues due to mass-vaccination. We will probably also see a rise in hospitalisations over the spring and summer as acquired immunity wanes and the more vulnerable succumb to the disease. The effects of relaxation of self-isolation requirements has already kicked in with the return to work and the use of public transport. The position won't be helped by the anticipated massive scale-down in self testing that is inevitable now that free PCR and lateral flow tests are no longer available, since we won't then know the extent of what we're dealing with when resurgences occur.

We may of course be lucky and escape more lightly over the summer than this rather bleak picture suggests, but I suspect the real crunch will come in autumn - assuming of course that Putin's continued heroic efforts to start WW3 haven't  already dispatched us all in a large puff of radioactive smoke.....Happy days.

See https:/sites.google.com/view.vivweb01/covid19 for more details

Postscript 3.3.22: The recent deplorable outbreak of war in Ukraine and its aftermath will do nothing to help the world come to terms with SARS-CoV-2. Sadly, the effects of conflict almost invariably weaken immune defences in a population, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections and a consequent increase in the likelihood of variants developing. Russia itself is currently riddled with Covid and relatively poorly vaccinated compared with western Europe and the US, and the effect of sanctions on healthcare and food supplies are likely to take a considerable toll there. 

Interestingly China, where draconian restrictions managed to keep the virus to low levels early in the pandemic is now facing its own local Covid epidemic due to the extreme infectiousness of Omicron B.2., which has broken through the defences in earnest in Hong Kong and has now spread into mainland China (see China blog for more details). One of the reasons this is happening is that enforced lack of exposure, and an aversion to using western mRNA and adenovirus based vaccines (or developing their own) has left the population with relatively low acquired immunity levels. The CCP's continued adherence to a 'zero Covid' policy will certainly not help matters, and may blight the economy for some time to come if it continues to be pursued obsessively.....

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