UK Local By-Election results as a Barometer of National Political Fortunes

Making long term predictions about political outcomes nationally is a risky process indeed.

In some ways it’s comparable to weather forecasting – the earth’s atmosphere is a chaotic system and trying to predict its behaviour locally more than 2 or 3 days ahead with any degree of accuracy still presents us with many uncertainties, despite all our advances in predictive technology (including even AI!). And we’ve all seen recently how long a week is in politics nowadays, let alone a month, or indeed 3 years - chaos seems to reign there, also.

Although 2029 is thus a very long way ahead from a political point of view, and Labour's leadership and cabinet teams will be focused on more immediate policy decisions, the time will (hopefully!) fly by. Labour's advance planners, mindful that the day of reckoning draws ever nearer, will already be thinking hard, and I suspect with some trepidation, about their electoral prospects…and not solely for the next general election. Even the advent of 'The Messiah' in the form of a certain ex-mayor of Manchester (sorry - by his own admission in the House he's just a naughty boy), will likely not make much difference once the electorate realises he can't solve all our problems any more than Starmer could.

After the hammering both major parties took in the 2025 and 2026 local elections, largely at the hands of Farage’s Reform and the Greens, they will both be acutely aware that their next real ‘day of reckoning’ will indeed be the 2029 General election. The reason why Labour in particular should be concerned at this relatively early stage is that this date, is now probably less than 3 years away. If they don’t get their ‘house in order’ and offer some hope of stability and improvement in their standard of living to the electorate, and quickly, there will be ‘hell to pay’ when the election finally arrives. The local elections between now and 2029 will probably continue the trend against the 2 (erstwhile) major parties, and are worth watching to assess any changes in the preominance of the individual challenger parties, if nothing else.

Does all this really matter, though, given Labour's huge majority in parliament ?

The answer is that it does…the hard reality is that, due to the first past the first past the post system, Labour’s victory was a somewhat ‘hollow’ one in 2024, with their vast House of Commons majority arising from the support of a ridiculously small percentage of the population (ca 25%). Thus Labour could only ever claim limited popularity even then, and this has plummeted to all time lows within 2 years of their election. The brunt of continued disapproval of the resulting chaos-prone national government by the electorate (and there’s plenty of that around just now!) will fall on local Labour councillors, some of whom come up for re-election next year and will already be very worried about retaining their seats in May 2027. 

If, as seems quite possible, Labour suffer a complete rout in the next set of local polls, it will signal they really are continuing to 'get it badly wrong' as a party in the eyes of the electorate. They will then have even more ground to recover later in the electoral cycle to stand any chance at all of being re-elected.

In one sense, this systematic rout of sitting councillors is a pity. Local politics is by its nature less overtly political than the national variety, and involves a lot more cross-party collaboration (it simply has to, in order to get things done at a local level). A lot of good, hardworking and experienced Labour councillors may well lose their seats next May as a result of their national leadership's ill-advised policy decisions, with the attendant loss of their collective expertise and enthusiasm to local government. 

Sadly, it’s virtually impossible to protect local councillors from the effects of national government unpopularity, so there will inevitably be a toll to reckon with, given that the Westminster leadership have shown little or no contrition for their 'sins' to date. Starmer's recent efforts, such as they are, on the diplomatic front are unlikely to make much impression, given his many 'faux pas' at home.

An additional factor to consider is that many local councils ‘went Labour’ during the Tory wipeouts of the last 5 years, and thus a significant number of currently Labour-controlled LAs may well be at risk of the party losing its overall control if they lose councillors in significant numbers. This will not please ‘grass roots’ supporters, who already blame Starmer and Reeves for all their ills (including a continued lack of LA funding - witness the resulting refuse-ridden chaos in our 2nd city, Birmingham this summer, which is still onoing, and actually set to worsen!).

This unpopularity in the ranks could create even more divisions within the party; the left  won’t have forgotten having their Winter Fuel restoration resolution at the 2024 Conference first sidelined, and then studiously ignored, by the leadership at the time (it took a near back-bench revolt to force them to even partially reverse the move the following year).

The unions are already starting to 'get tough', now that the axe has well and truly fallen on the super-inflationary 'all you can eat' pay rises that were characteristic of Labour's first few months. An unusually militant BMA leadership is predictably clamouring for more, and has persuaded hospital doctors to strike yet again in pursuit of yet more cash, despite their recent 29% award, and the new health minister has clearly been instructed to stand his ground. Apart from the inevitable swathe of cancelled outpatient appointments, and a potential NHS catastrophe likely to emerge if the majority of Junior Doctors do heed the call to strike again, we may also soon find our streets covered with refuse 'a la Birmingham' if Unite (who, you may remember, were the union so effectively snubbed at conference in October over their restore Winter Fuel motion) extend their strike to a country-wide walkout. 

Before her own 'fall from grace', Rayner (aka 'Our Angela') herself fell foul of Unite's wrath by not supporting the bin collector's cause and had her membership rescinded – and then was forced to resign as a result of her housing 'issues’. How the mighty are fallen....and keep falling. Angela herself, however, is not done, and as the 'angry woman of Labour' is already attempting to make a comeback; she'll no doubt soon be warming up on the sidelines for a leadership challenge 'a la Burnham',  but would be advised not to take her tracksuit off too early, given the chill political winds we're currently experiencing, and the virtual certainty that Burnham will be 'crowned' PM on July 17th !

On a more serious note, is there any way of predicting how bad things might get for Labour, and how this might affect General Elections to come  ?

Opinion polls are the most obvious and popular choice for assessing voting intentions for future general elections. The majority of these currently put Labour support significantly lower than it was immediately post-election, with consistent losses of between 6 and 10 percentage points. A fairly recent YouGov poll actually put Labour a full 9 points behind Reform (18% vs 27%), with even the Tories hot on their heels, also at 18%.  Interestingly, though, the opinion polls also seem to indicate that the Tories appear to have gained relatively little from this downturn in Labour's fortunes so far. 

This might at first sight be what one would expect at this stage of the cycle, given the Tories spell in ‘rehab’ is still in its early stages, with their new leader yet to make a real impression, and (wisely, I suspect) avoiding making detailed promises on policy. There is some evidence that their opinion poll fortunes are slowly reviving, partly on the back of Reform’s periodic unpalatability and Labour incompetence, but they've a long way to go yet.

However, other, and arguably perhaps more reliable indicators of public voting intentions, might suggest a different trend. Let's look at a more immediate register of how the electorate are feeling. How much can we read into Labour’s loss of popularity with regard to local election prospects? 

Opinion polls are, at best, a blunt instrument when it comes to predictions on voting outcomes ‘on the day’, and acknowledge that they often get it wrong. Things have also become harder to predict in recent years, with our electorate becoming progressively more ‘volatile’ and unfathomable, with traditional voter loyalty very much on the decrease.

To take the weather analogy a bit further, we do, however, have a less well-used ‘barometer’ of voter sentiment available in the form of local by-election results. Since this represents real performance data, it is arguably a better indicator than opinion polls, whose representative small-sampling technique using ‘representative populations’ of voters really just gives a 'snapshot' of immediate sentiment within a small selected group, and can easily miss longer-term changes as a result.

We could, of course, also use the constituency by-election method for predictions of General Election prospects, but the main problem there is that these events tend to be relatively few and far between. Most MP movements during a parliament tend to be trans-party shifts rather than resignations, for obvious reasons. Although we have seen quite a few shifts of allegiance from the Tories to Reform recently, the sampling statistics they generate are therefore too sparse to be reliable, particularly this far ahead of a general election. 

Local council by-elections, on the other hand, are much more frequent, arising as they do whenever a councillor either moves house, suffers illness, or just simply gets fed up with the thankless task they’ve taken on, and resigns their position. This means we get a much better, and arguably more reliable, picture of how things are going from week to week, with respect to overall grass-roots voter sentiment across the country. Some might argue that results reflect too much the immediate local issues to be representative, and any mid-term poll will naturally tend to favour opposition parties. Voters do tend to admit when challenged that their feelings about the national government 'colour their judgment' when voting locally, hence it's reasonable to assume this belief has some validity.

There are various online sources for local by-election statistics. I’ve provided a link to one of the more reliable ones, which provides a regularly-updated summary. The table below this text shows a summary of the latest results.

The current stats are quite interesting, and confirm that the trend away from Labour is persisting at the local level. A look back at previous readouts also shows that this trend has persisted almost continuously since shortly after the initial WFP announcement in July 2024. After an initial surge in the first couple of months post-election, Tory support has also flat-lined, with continued losses of their seats to Reform.

The Labour blood-letting is a direct consequence of the degree of unpopularity the current government has already brought upon itself by its treatment of pensioners, its cave-ins to the public sector unions with exorbitant wage settlements, and its apparent complete disdain for the business sector and the farming industry in favour of the public sector and 'the workers'. (Interestingly, Labour have struggled to produce a useful definition of this term when challenged on its modern-day relevance - this may be because, like the 'working class' of yester-year, it is arguable as to whether it still actually exists as a homogeneous group in our economically highly diverse and multi-ethnic society. Starmer’s most recent effort at defining it is “…anyone earning less than £45k p.a…”, which now excludes virtually all salaried professionals and many blue-collar workers of old. It begs the question of whether he has already added this group to his 'no-support' list for punitive action - Reeves' extension of the tax threshold freeze would suggest he has).   

The most recent data confirm that none of the promised reforms Labour has introduced since taking office have resulted in any signs of improvement in their electoral prospects, and thus do not augur well for the party. After a catastrophic 2024 budget for industry, and virtually everyone else, the 2025 variant failed to introduce any measures designed to promote growth, confirming that Labour's agenda is indeed redistribution of wealth via 'tax and spend' policies, rather than any desire to create the wealth this country so badly needs to support it going forward. The latest fiasco on the Defence Review, occasioned by Reeves' outright refusal to stump up the full cost of defending the UK against a belligerent Russia will only serve to hasten her demise.

Looking at the distribution of Labour's lost by-election seats last summer, well before the May 2026 elections, the net loss of 39 since the previous May, with a net loss of 22 for the Conservatives, and a whopping 50 gains for Reform with the few remaining seats changing hands between the minor parties (see table below) was refected in the May results. It's also noteworthy that the Lib Dems, who profited handsomely from the Tories unpopularity in July, and have been vying with the Tories (and Reform!) for the title of principal opposition party ever since, made only relatively few gains, so may find it hard to retain their ‘bumper crop’ of parliamentary 72 seats in the 2029 election.

But couldn’t this apparent loss of support for Labour just reflect the well-established ‘mid-term unpopularity effect’, whereby by-election results often result in a trouncing for the ruling party’s candidate on the back of government unpopularity ?

I suspect not – it's still too early in the cycle for that to apply. Apart from anything else, we have, sadly, not yet reached mid-term yet, and a government as new as this one would normally be given the benefit of the doubt by its electorate for at least its first 6-9 months in office, and a chance to keep its manifesto promises and start improving our collective lot for a year or so after that. 

Labour was, after all, given an unusually strong mandate (at least in terms of its majority, despite only polling 25% of the electorate), and as electors, those of us who didn't vote Tory will be naturally reluctant to admit they seem to have made the ‘wrong’ choice this early on in the 5-year term. The fact that support for this particular government plummeted so dramatically in just their first 3 months, and has remained alarmingly low ever since, indicates that something really has gone wrong....and that Labour have a 'popularity  mountain' to climb before 2029. The result also called into question the validity of the 1st past the post system, now that the traditional 2-party system looks to be in its death throes

Will we get any corroboration of this trend from constituency by-elections ?

Probably not, at least for some time - this is a relatively young parliament with a large number of 'virgin' Labour MPs who unlikely to resign their seats mid-parliament. Many of the ‘old guard’ (both Labour and Tory) either stood down before the election or lost their seats on polling day, so we would expect very few constituency by-elections at this stage of the game. Any further ‘defectors’ from Labour are likely to either go independent or switch allegiance to another party, rather than resigning their seats. Thus we will have to rely on the local results, and to an extent the opinion polls, to judge.

Starmer seemed to set great store by dismissing any need to be seen as a ‘popular’ and charismatic leader (he would in any case have had a job achieving either!), but was desperate to overcome his reputation for weakness, and project strength. His strategy was clearly to 'get the pain over with' in the early stages of his 'reign' and hope the electorate would have forgotten it all by 2029. It's no coincidence that he also set much store by strenuous efforts on the diplomatic front, spearheading the 'coalition of the willing' and ingratiating himself with Trump at every opportunity (it was said by party skeptics that he did this in order to spend as much time away from his unruly back-benchers as possible….I couldn’t possibly venture an opinion about that!).

If Burnham cntinues the trend, partcularly with a tax raid against 'the well off', he may well find this approach comes back to bite him if he continues to ignore his electorate…his 'legions' of new back-benchers, many of whom will have already felt the 'chill wind of constituency disapproval' in their mailboxes as a reward for their loyalty to Starmer over the more controversial issues, have already ensured Starmer's demise, and may quickly start to wonder whether his successor is also becoming a liability rather than an asset. The most surprising thing in all this is perhaps the number of different groups of electors Satrmer  managed to alienate during his tenure by disadvantaging them in some way, and the speed with which he has achieved this. The old maxim "..fools rush in where angels fear to tread" certainly springs to mind here....

Labour's real problem, though, is that as his electors, and ultimately the determinants of his fate, we have long memories......especially if we have been directly affected by their leaders' decisions. Quite a few of the 10 million pensioners Starmer deprived summarily of their winter fuel allowance and who voted Labour in July 2024 are unlikely to do it again...ever. And that legacy certainly won't help the party's vote share next time round, or the next..... To coin a phrase "...a pensioner's goodwill is for life...not just for electoral Christmas..".

And what of Labour’s prospects ‘post-Starmer’ ?

Assuming a Momentum-sponsored leadership team with Burnham at its head manage to replace Starmer, the very policies which threaten to alienate the electorate (i.e. “Tax, Tax, Tax and spend...then Tax ‘em again”) are likely to  persist unabated, with a burgeoning public sector, more inflationary public sector wage settlements, and no attempt to control the welfare budget. This could do untold harm to our economic prospects over Labour’s 3 remaining years, assuming they do go to full term. You have only to look at the Markets’ response to Reeves screeching U-turn on IT rate hikes last year on the long-term gilt rates to confirm that as a likely outcome.

At this stage, the outcome of the 2029 election (or perhaps as early as 2027 if Farage’s prediction comes true and the party implodes!) is far too far ahead to call. Confident predictions of a Reform landslide should probably be taken with a large pinch of salt. To achieve this remarkable feat, a truly massive shift of at least 350 seats would need to occur from Labour and the Tories to Reform, with the other parties all remaining static. Given our first past the post system, and Reform's unproven record, we are much more likely to see a hung parliament, or even a small Labour majority, in 2029, particularly if Farage is unable to maintain discipline within the Reform candidate ranks, and stop more of the unsavoury characters their ideology tends to attract emerging from the woodwork. By then his burgeoning local councillor population will also have 'got their horns out' and we will no doubt see further scandals, with at least some of his vote going to the Greens and Restore Britain, who split the right wing Makersfield vote; together with the Burham effect, this effectively lost Reform the by-election. 

One revolution we may well see at the next general poll as a result is the breaking of the 2-party system – this definitely is on the cards if both major parties fail to improve their prospects within the next year or so, and the Tories remain in the 'electoral doldrums'.

We need therefore to keep a close eye on our ‘barometer’ in the meantime, and of course the 2027 and subsequent local election results. The image below, which I will attempt to update periodically, shows the distribution of local council seats won in Local by-elections held between May 25 and May 26.

First Published 15.11.25; Revised 25.6.26