Remember Covid ? It’s Back Again, and in New Colours

 

Two new Covid sub-variants have recently been identified as responsible for a surge of new Covid infections round the world. These are giving rise to some concerns in UK, in that a comparable surge here could also lead to a significant rise in hospitalisations this autumn and winter.

According to WHO data, Europe seems to be ‘leading the pack’ on rises in case numbers. We might reasonably expect this, now that we’re well into the N. Hemisphere Autumn quarter,  when seasonal respiratory infections traditionally tend to start increasing again after the summer hiatus, and we're also one of the most population-dense continents on the planet.

The good news is that the new variants, named Nimbus and Stratus, don’t appear to be significantly more lethal than previous variants. They do, however, seem to be even more efficient at infecting us than their predecessors.

Stratus, also known as Omicron sub-variant XFG, and Nimbus (Omicron NB.1.8.1) now have the status of ‘Variants Under Monitoring’ with the World Health Organisation (WHO). They have not yet been upgraded to the next category (‘Variants of Interest’).

Since these are both Omicron sub-variants, we would expect that our approved vaccines would still be effective against both of them. This doesn’t however, mean that those who have already vaccinated are likely to be immune. For one thing, both variants are even more infectious than previous sub-variants, and will thus have an enhanced ability to penetrate our immune defences. For another, in UK vaccinations are no longer available free of charge to anyone except the over 75s and those with compromised immune systems.

Given that ‘full’ post vaccination  immunity normally only lasts ca 6 months, and many of us haven’t been vaccinated for 2 years or more, population immunity levels will be a lot lower than in 2022-23 at the end of the pandemic phase. With the price of a jab now up to £100 a dose from some clinics, I suspect the vast majority of us will also have to go without for another year.

What are the consequences of this policy rather short-sighted policy likely to be for the general UK population ? For a start, its introduction has not been at all well publicised, and pharmacists are reeling uder a onslaught of complaints from angry over 65s when they trun up for their flu jabs and are told they're no longer eligible for a Covid one.

From the epidemiological point of view, although most of us should still have basic protection against the worst symptoms, these particular variants seem to be a little more aggressive, with more unpleasant symptoms for most of those who catch it. We also still have ‘Long Covid’ to reckon with – anyone who catches the virus can be affected by this syndrome, even if their immune systems are not compromised initially. Thus we should expect a significant uptick in hospitalisations, a higher frequency of Long Covid, and even unfortunately some increases in Covid-related  deaths as the autumn progresses. This trend is in fact already being realised, and should raise the question as to whether withholding free vaccine as the government are doing on economy grounds is a wise move, given the resulting extra burden likely to hit an NHS already teetering on the brink, with another winter struggle yet to come…..

The official advice from UK.Gov seems to be just to wear a face covering if you think you’re affected and stay at home if possible, but to go about your business normally otherwise.

Time will tell whether that turns out to be a sensible course of action.

"...Where next for Covid ?" might be a reasonable question to ask at this point in time. We have been serendipitously fortunate that none of our approved vaccines are actually capable of preventing infection completely. Had this not been the case, there might well have been more selection pressure on the virus to mutate into so-called 'escape' variants sufficiently different in their external structure to evade our existing antibodies and T cell populations, with potentially more lethal consequences. As it is, its mutational 'efforts' have been confined to making the infection process as efficient as possible, and thus continuing to infect large numbers of the population virtually unchallenged. Most respiratory viruses tend to become progressively less injurious to their hosts as time goes on and become 'endemic'. The UK public health authorities' view in restricting vaccination to just a select few is probably based on this assumption. Hopefully this particular virus will be true to form, although it's still early days in its evolution, and we should be vigilant that it doesn't 'pull anything nasty out of its hat' when we're least expecting it.....

As always, watch this space for further updates…

First published 1.10.25