Could this be the ‘beginning of the end’ for Starmer ?

 

Keir Starmer’s speech last week was ostensibly intended to ‘rouse the troops’ and help drive his policies forward. It was also probably also staged by his advisors now as an attempt at a ‘soft reset’,  aimed at erasing as far as possible in our memories the decidedly shaky start his first 5 months in government have produced. 

In this it was somewhat naïve, to say the least, given the magnitude and the almost universal unpopularity of the changes he has made. The tone of his address was even more inappropriate for the intended task and merely added insult to injury….

In playing the ‘aggrieved boss’, as Laura Kuenssberg so aptly puts it, he made his big (and possibly eventually fatal) mistake.

By effectively ‘slanging-off’ his civil servants as being slow, inefficient and sometimes downright obstructive,  he will have made many more enemies amongst a key group of his government support team. 

The bulk of civil servants are hard-working and highly skilled at what they do, and are committed to keeping the UK plc 'engine' running. They will have been busting a gut over recent months in response to the unfolding policy chaos, trying to work out what yet another clueless PM and his minions actually wants them to do, and adapting as far as possible to the vagaries of their new ministerial bosses. 

Imagine their emotional reactions to this obvious vote of no confidence in their abilities by their new 'boss', and you’ll get a sense of what the consequences for the actual running of our government might look like. And any attempt to sack or penalise any civil servant thought to be 'slacking' or 'uncooperative' would, of course, bring down on Starmer the wrath of the Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS), who will by now be well-primed and ready for action. Not a sensible, or safe, option then, given that he has already a) championed legislation enhancing workers rights and protections and b) made an enemy of another powerful union, UNITE, over the Winter Fuel Payment fiasco at Conference in October.

One thing is certain - neither Starmer himself, nor any of his ministers, can actually make things happen ‘on the ground’ in government. Only the civil service can do this, and no ruling party, however big its majority in parliament,  can ‘go it alone’ without their help...and guidance. By alienating them as a body in the way he has just done, I suspect Starmer may just have set the seal on his own demise.

Why does he keep making these basic strategy errors ? 

I suspect Kuenssberg may have hit the nail on the head yesterday with her suggestion that he "...knows how to 'be' PM but not how to 'do' it....". His recent absences 'swanning' around the world as a would-be international statesman, trying to put everything to rights, would fit well with Laura's assessment. Staying at home, actually listening to his electorate, and allowing some sensible ideas to prevail on how to really solve the UK's many problems would fit much better with the role of a new PM, and might just save his government. It might also avoid irritating any further the world leaders he keeps offering 'advice' to on such a regular basis. (Harry Enfield's wonderful character with the catchphrase "..now I don't think you wanted to do that..." springs to mind as a good parallel.)

The bookies’ odds on a change of leadership before Easter are currently around 5:1 but are already narrowing…..get your bets in now before it goes to evens.

Update 14.12.24: Yet another Labour strategy error came to light in the past week, with local authorities, and now the building trade, confirming that Starmer's plans for £1.5 million new homes is, basically, impossible. (See also recent blog for more details on this).

Thanks to (quite legitimate) restrictions on immigrant workers, on which our UK building trade largely depended before 2021, and a decline in 'home grown' recruiting to the industry, we simply don't have sufficient of the many experienced trades-people with the wide variety of skill sets needed to build houses, and the infrastructure that supports them. Moreover, the workforce we do have is an ageing one, with many already over 50 and set to move into less physically exacting jobs whenever they can. Even 'our Angela', swanning around ministerially in her hard hat and Hi-Vis jacket for the cameras, won't make any impression on this. 

We do need more houses, certainly, but the first thing we need to do is to put a hold on our population's growth by radically restricting immigration and getting our illegals processed and swiftly deported. We can then adopt a more measured and realistic approach to house building, and start accommodating those who are entitled to live here, and are able to afford home ownership, by building the right type of houses....and where they are really needed. We also need to make sure there is enough affordable rented accommodation for everyone else. Penalising buy-to-rent landlords through the tax system certainly won't help with that....

First published 8.12.24

Revised 23.12.24

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