Election Politics: Have Momentum Shown Their Hand too Early ?...

 

Having warned of the dangers of a Momentum ‘coup’ for some months now (see link to previous blog), I was intrigued to see the row developing within Labour ranks this week about Diane Abbott’s candidacy (or lack of it) in the forthcoming election.

Starmer has been at great pains over the past 2 years to rid the party of all trace of  Corbynite ‘hard left’ influence, realising its catastrophic effect on the party’s electability after the election debacle of 2019. What little doubt there may have been in the voters' minds that he has singularly failed to achieve his eradication objective will have been removed in the past 24 hours.

Far from ‘keeping their powder dry’ until Starmer was safely installed in #10 as many predicted, ‘Abbott’s last stand’ has brought Momentum tumbling out of the woodwork and created an almighty row within Labour’s ranks. Some media reports have even likened it to a civil war. Rayner is already 'on the case' for the left, and has defied Starmer openly - a good indication of things to come.

Why have Momentum ‘risked all’ for Labour's  electoral prospects by showing their hand now ?

My guess is that they see Starmer’s candidate heavily vetted selection list as a real existential threat to their cause, and feel forced to react by confronting him openly now on anti-left bias, using Abbott as a standard bearer for the cause. Their original intention of waiting until Labour were safely in government was effectively trumped by their need to avoid being expunged from the ranks of elected MPs and consigned to the political sidelines, where their struggle to bring back hard left policies would have been much more difficult.

The timing is also no coincidence – nominations for the July 4th election have to be in by 7th June – now just 9 days away, so they need to act quickly to avoid complete exclusion.

What ensues over the next few days may well determine Starmer’s  political fate…if he backs down and tries to reach a compromise with Rayner and his left wingers by including some of them in his list and supporting Abbott, he risks being seen as ‘weak’, which will inevitably reduce his majority and could even lead to a hung parliament. On the other hand, taking a firmer stand will enrage the left, and more to the point, will alienate his trade union financial backers. An unenviable choice indeed…

 Ms Abbott has always been a thorn in the flesh of the Labour ‘establishment’, and many in the party's higher echelons were looking forward to her retirement…no such luck, I’m afraid, chaps.

At the tender age of only 70, and having held her seat since 1987, Diane could have many happy and controversial parliamentary years ahead of her yet, and could even be a candidate to take over as the next but one PM after Momentum stage their coup…now that really would be a winner for the Corbynites…and of course for the man himself….

As discussed previously...be careful what you wish (and vote) for....

Update 1.6.24: So now we know who's really in charge of Labour....

Starmer has, predictably perhaps, caved in to left wing pressure without a fight - it would, after all,  take someone with formidable strength of character and resolve to stand up to the combined might of Rayner and Abbott....and Starmer just hasn't got it....

Even if such an individual could be found, they would have a constant battle with the engrained far left of the party to convince voters that their policies would remain moderate. Given Labour's constitution and funding model, the left will always win out, and its electability in UK will thus always be marginal and open to challenge.  

We can now see how the left will win out post-election, probably without even a 'shot being fired'. 

Enjoy your premiership, Sir Keir...you may not have it for long....

First published 30.5.24

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