China and Covid Part 2 – The Sequel

 

Recent events in China have confirmed that chairman Xi’s decision to go for ‘Zero Covid or bust’ was the wrong one, as suggested in my blog ‘China and Covid’ back in March. 

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA-n variants are now virtually unstoppable, due to their extreme infectiousness, and any attempt to eradicate the virus entirely from a population was always doomed to failure. If there were any remaining question in the minds of our epidemiologists about the impossibility of eradicating a coronavirus with this degree of infectiousness, China’s 3-year 'experiment' has now effectively proven the case beyond reasonable doubt....

The widespread prediction earlier this year that the Chinese population would eventually rebel against perpetual lockdowns is already coming to pass – the only question is how far the population will be prepared to go to achieve its aims - and how nasty it will get.

This will be determined largely by how the CCP attempts to deal with it. One thing is certain, however – maintaining the status quo is no longer an option for them.

The nightmare scenario, of course, is a wholesale bloodbath resulting from the CCP deploying the army with orders to put down the rebellion ‘no matter what’. This is unfortunately a distinct possibility - the CCP government's greatest fear is loss of control. This is because its grip on power depends exclusively on maintaining control over all aspects of peoples' lives. The 'bloodbath' scenario would almost certainly lead to the leadership’s own eventual demise, and the ensuing political chaos throughout China would affect us all, not least because of the importance of the Chinese economy on the world stage. Something to be avoided at all costs, I would suggest.

The leadership will now be acutely aware of the danger it is in, and it is to be hoped that Xi will be statesman-like enough accept that his original approach to dealing with Covid was wrong, and that a different strategy is urgently needed to avoid widespread rebellion and its chaotic and bloody consequences. If he can’t, or won’t, see reason, the Chinese military may well have a pivotal role to play – they will realise that they cannot kill, or even imprison 1.5 billion people, and only they have the power to put a stop to any leadership-induced crackdown if the casualty rate gets too high to avoid a complete meltdown.

The only hope for China to deal with Covid effectively now is for the leadership to accept that their strategy has failed and adopt a similar approach to that taken more or less everywhere else in the world – that of learning to live with the virus. 

Our mRNA-based western Covid vaccines have proved themselves to be effective in suppressing the worst effects of SARS-CoV-2 in a way that isn’t guaranteed with the older-style killed virus or viral antigen immunisation methods currently used in China. The best chinese vaccines are only capable of full protection against Covid's worst effects in ca 70% of the population, and even less so in  the older age groups - this is too low to avoid an unacceptably high death rate once the virus 'lets rip' after restrictions are lifted. None of the vaccines we have so far devised are capable of preventing infection, although most do raise the threshold dose of the virus required for disease to become established. The approved Bivalent western vaccines have a 90% protective success rate, so are the most obvious ‘weapon’ at the leadership’s disposal to extricate themselves from a difficult situation of their own making. 

As discussed in my original blog, apart from loss of face for the leadership, one of the main stumbling blocks for the CCP in opening up the country in response to public demand is that a large proportion of the most vulnerable elderly population is still unprotected. This is largely due to vaccine resistance and poor immunisation strategy. The effectiveness of 'zero covid' of itself also ensures that the vast majority of the chinese population will have no natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2. What is needed as a first step is compulsory vaccination with the Moderna or Pfizer bivalent mRNA vaccines, which contain gene constructs for both the original Wuhan strain sequence and Omicron BA4 and BA5 variants.  Until this is done, it will not be ‘safe’ to open up completely without unacceptably high death rates.

The best policy for the CCP would be to initiate this policy, publicise it widely while emphasising the reasons for it, and in the meantime ease the current draconian regulations to allow some freedom of movement. It will still be important to emphasise the need for self-isolation and personal hygiene and protection measures of the sort we went through ourselves in UK before the first vaccines came on stream in early 2021, but this can come with the promise of much greater freedoms being given, once the majority of the at-risk population is protected. 

The current zero-covid policy is doomed anyway, now that uprisings have started in earnest, and the elderly population is at high risk from viral spread, so widespread vaccination, starting with the over 75s and working down the age spectrum, is a must.

How can we help ?

Fortunately, the mass vaccination campaigns in the West have now largely run their course, so that supplies of approved mRNA vaccines could be dedicated to supporting a Chinese campaign more easily that would have been the case at the height of the pandemic.

There is an excellent entrepreneurial opportunity for the vaccine producers here, once China decides on a Western-style approach and approves our vaccines – China’s economy is rich enough to pay market rates for the large number of does that will be required for their immunisation programme, and there are many billions to be made as a result. 

The manufacturing processes would need to be rapidly scaled up, of course, and manufacture in China itself under license would be needed to enable rapid expansion of production there and avoid import delays. This is all perfectly feasible, despite the current cost of living crisis, provided the price is right. 

A useful side effect of the change in policy might also be an ‘instruction’ from Xi to Putin to suspend his activities in Ukraine, pending completion of the immunisation campaign, to minimise potential disruption of production due to the war. Xi has done this before – his ‘request’ to hold off the initial Ukraine invasion until the end of his Beijing winter olympics show is a good example of Putin’s enforced willingness to comply with his ‘senior partner’s’ instructions.

Let’s hope that Xi will see reason and accept he can’t go it alone any longer, and needs Western help to protect his population. He will, I'm sure,  not want his legacy to be that of a brutal dictator happy to kill large numbers of his ‘subjects’ in the way Stalin did post WW2 to ensure his regime’s survival – Xi has a short ‘window’ of opportunity now to make the right decisions and see that doesn’t happen.

Viv

Version date 29.11.22

Update 1.12.22: It is somewhat reassuring to see that the authorities in some Chinese cities have now started to lift some of the most draconian of their Covid restrictions. This is a sensible first step and should help restore order. The important thing now is to hasten the vaccination campaign  and ensure the vaccines used are of maximum efficacy. Watch this space... 

Update 6.12.22: Looks like things are starting to change, and good sense may have prevailed at last. Partial lifting of Covid restrictions in mainland China does seem to be widespread now, although how much of this is locally-inspired remains to be seen. Presumably the CCP must have given at least tacit approval. Not much indication as to how the vaccination strategy may have changed yet - let's hope they get this one right as well...