Covid is on the move again

Please note that this article was compiled way back in June 2022 towards the end of the main pandemic - for a more recent update you might want to look at the following:

https://vivweb01.blogspot.com/2023/08/new-covid-variant-ba286-how-bad-could.html

https://vivweb01.blogspot.com/2022/11/china-and-covid-2-sequel.html

https://vivweb01.blogspot.com/2023/04/covid-update-new-variant-arcturus-first.html

I also plan to compile an update in the near future, and will include a discussion on the likelihood of a new pandemic and the virus strains most likely to cause it....

As predicted, the Covid case rate has continued to rise again in the UK, and shows little sign of abating.

The latest UK-wide estimate is that 1 in 18 of the population is infected, up from 1 in 25 last week. Scotland seems to be the worst of the home nations affected with even higher rates. We should remember that both figures are much higher than the peaks seen in the first 2 Covid 'waves' in 2020. Given the high infectivity of the virus, we are probably more likely now than at any time in the past to become infected with this virus. Why is this ?

Two more new Omicron sub-variants (BA4 and BA5) were identified in South Africa last month and confirmed as having even greater infectivity than earlier omicron sub-variants. It is these that appear to be driving the current uptick in case numbers in Europe and UK. BA4 and BA5 now account for almost 50% of the infections in the SA population which is currently experiencing a significant new Covid 'wave'. As yet they form quite a low proportion of infections in UK, but this is on the rise, and the new variants are expected to replace BA.2 over the summer. The recent rapid UK rise may in part also be an after-effect of the Jubilee weekend, where the large event gatherings and street-parties will no doubt have hastened the spread of old and new variants alike.

It may also be relevant to the UK situation that only the over 75s were offered an additional booster injection this Spring. The rest of us will be well over 6 months post-last boost at this point. We know that immunity falls away to trough levels after 6 months, thus lowering the infection 'threshold' for Covid. Now that very few of us are taking any precautions against infection, even, I note, in crowded or enclosed situations such as public transport, conditions are once again ideal for the virus to spread. The only advantage we have at present is the presence of relatively high UV levels, and this won't last much beyond the end of August. A new booster campaign has been announced for the autumn and the elegible age range extended to the over 50s. This is a wise move, but won't do much to prevent the spread of the disease in younger age groups. It may also lead to complacency.

Perhaps of more concern is some early evidence from SA studies that both new variants appear to be better able to evade our vaccines (cf the Beta variant, also first identified in SA, which rendered the AZ adenovirus-based vaccine effectively useless there in 2021). This is also likely to be a contributory factor in the recent rapid spread, as it will lower the threshold dose of virus required for an infection to occur.

Fortunately, neither new sub-variant appears so far to be producing more severe disease in infected individuals. If, however, new variants do continue to increase their capacity to evade our antibodies and T Cells, we may be in for a rude awakening later in the year when the seasonal element of respiratory virus infections kicks in.

See also my blogs on SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and China & Covid for more info.

Version date: 23.7.22

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