Ukraine – How do we stop Putin ? A Developing Commentary

There has been much talk recently in the media of possible military escalation in Europe  involving limited nuclear exchanges, much of it frankly quite terrifying for many of us. Having lived through the first cold war of the 1970s and 80s myself, I’m acutely aware that once the nuclear ‘genie’ was out of the bottle, it would be virtually impossible to stop escalation to a strategic level and prevent the resulting armageddon. There is really no prospect of a limited nuclear exchange - it's literally all or nothing.

Having managed to survive the nuclear age this far, we cannot, and must not, allow the miscalculations of a single deranged individual to plunge a world of 8 billion inhabitants into a nuclear holocaust. As you'll see from a recent blog I posted, the likelihood of us finding anywhere else habitable in the solar system or beyond is basically zilch, so we have but one chance for survival - planet Earth.

The West has already applied sweeping sanctions to Russia as a whole, and against Putin’s immediate entourage in particular. There is now also a likelihood of war crimes trials in the aftermath of the war (assuming our society survives it) for the perpetrators of atrocities against civilians. This conflict is probably the most widely covered ever by the media at large, despite Putin's efforts at concealment, and there will therefore be no hiding place for those held responsible. The recent incontrovertible evidence of atrocities committed on defenseless civilians by retreating Russian soldiers in areas to the north of Kyiv has appalled the world, but is sadly a 'standard' feature of recent Russian military campaigns. A price will need to be paid, and this will do nothing to hasten Russia's rehabilitation after Putin's eventual demise.

All this attention and condemnation from much of the world has surprised and enraged Putin to the extent that he has put his nuclear forces into a ‘state of readiness’. He has also engineered the recent test of a new ICBM variant capable of evading missile defences as a warning to all-comers. This does not augur well for the world peace – or indeed the survival of the human species….

Putin has, by his actions, already shown himself to be ‘mentally challenged’, to use a contemporary phrase. His behaviour in the broadcasts surrounding recent diplomatic efforts appeared distinctly abnormal, and it has shown no signs of changing for the better since then. His obvious fixation on achieving a set goal ‘no matter what’ without considering the wider consequences is a classic characteristic of the ‘bunker’ mentality of a damaged leader under siege. His mentality might best be seen as a throwback to the Cold War era, when his USSR KGB experience taught him to hate all things non-Russian. He is obsessed with the idea of reuniting Ukraine with mother Russia, and ultimately reconstituting the old Soviet Union 'empire' in his own image, and he sees this as his legacy to the world.  

And he wouldn't be likely to stop there - if Putin ever achieved his primary aim of subjugating Ukraine, the whole of Europe and the Middle East would be next in the firing line for Russian domination. His pact with China would involve Beijing being 'allowed' to take Southeast Asia and Australasia, and the 'free' world then confined to the Americas and possibly those parts of Africa not already carved up between China and Russia. Once the two dictatorships had achieved this, there would be no stopping them, and the 'free' Americas would fall within a few years. We in the west need to understand that Putin has a contempt for anything or anyone which he sees as being too weak to stand up to him, and this includes what he sees as the 'decadent' West. His religious beliefs factor large in this view of the world, and he views his current campaign as part of a 'holy war' against the forces of evil massed against him. In this respect his behaviour is akin to that of the islamist fundamentalists whose jihadist violence has plagued our societies for so long. Putin will only respond to the threat of overwhelming force, and we must unite to resist him now if we wish to preserve our hard-won freedoms.

Close observers of Putin's abnormal behaviour may also have noticed that his gait is abnormal, and this may indicate some form of age-related neuropathology. These symptoms could be a result of early dementia, which commonly sets in during the 7^th and 8^th decades of life (Putin is now 69). 

This may also explain why he has seen fit to intensify his campaign against Ukraine now after 8 years of fruitless onslaught in the Donbas region - a diagnosis of something serious and potentially life-limiting (which would, of course, have been kept strictly 'under wraps' by the Kremlin) would focus his mind on fulfilling his 'legacy'. Arguably, the timing may turn out to be fortuitous for us all - his premature action before his army was trained and battle-ready may well turn out to have been his undoing.

Whatever his state of mental and physical health, it is unlikely that Putin will, or indeed can, relent and pull his troops completely out of Ukraine at this stage, since this would amount to  an admission of defeat on his part. He believes that it would lead to his rapid fall from power, and in this assumption at least he is probably correct. History shows us that the Russian people are intolerant of failure and have 'form' for removing unwanted Czars (of any description). This prospect has made him resistant so far to all attempts at compromise, despite the growing reluctance of many of his compatriots to wage all-out war against their neighbours, who are after all fellow Slavs. Highly effective brainwashing by the authorities in Russia, in combination with increasingly severe restrictions on news media, and ruthless suppression of any dissent, has so far effectively prevented any significant moves against him, and is likely to make the inevitable regime change a difficult and bloody affair when it comes. 

There are encouraging signs that the Russian military may already be struggling - a good indication of this is a recent request to China for replacement ordnance. The attack on a major airbase near the Polish border is also indicative of the damage western resupply of the Ukrainian forces is doing to Putin's war effort. The recent wholesale withdrawal of troops from the Kyiv environs in favour of a redoubling of efforts in the Donbas region confirms the trend. 

The generals also know full well what awaits them if and when they attempt to occupy any of Ukraine's cities - flattened or not. They will have advised Putin of the potential for catastrophic troop casualty rates. Aleppo will be like a 'walk in the park' by comparison, and the Russian people would soon realise what was really happening when the body bags started appearing in the tens of thousands, compounding their own suffering through a steady fall in their living standards and availability of basic supplies. 

The damage the Ukrainian military have done with modern western ordnance was brought home vividly in recent news footage of the aftermath of the 'great' Russian convoy outside Kyiv...a costly reminder to Putin that he may have bitten off more than he can chew, and confirmation that conquest of a determined and now hate-filled neighbour was never going to be easy. His generals recently stated openly that their efforts were to be concentrated on 'freeing' the Donbas region, and it does appear that Kyiv and western Ukraine are likely to be spared the wholesale destruction seen in the Black Sea coastal cities - for now at least.

It is a well known facet of animal behaviour that an animal (particularly a wounded one) is at its most dangerous when cornered, and we should take careful account of this when planning our own strategy to deal with the existential threat Putin now poses to world order and security. NATO's steadfast refusal to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine is a sensible precaution in this respect. Better to let a weakened Russian war machine 'stew in its own juice' for a bit longer than risk triggering WW3 prematurely. For, make no mistake, Putin will be prepared to risk all-out nuclear war if he sees defeat looming and we give him an excuse to press the nuclear button. 

In this respect, the situation we're now in is far more inherently dangerous than at any time during the first Cold War, since at that time there were two evenly balanced super-powers, and mutually assured destruction (MAD) was accepted by all sides as the inevitable result of all-out military and nuclear conflict.

The vast majority of nations and the UN have condemned the wholesale slaughter currently being visited on the civilian populations of Ukrainian cities. The evidence left by departing Russian troops in the towns to the north of Kyiv of atrocities against civilians is incontrovertible despite Moscow's continued protestations of innocence. 

Even China, whom Putin cleverly persuaded to sign a strategic alliance with Russia just before starting his campaign, is now becoming quite 'restive' about the implications of his behaviour, to say the least. The Chinese leadership will have tacitly agreed to Putin's plans for an invasion to start after the Beijing Winter Olympics had finished. This will have been based on the assumption that his 'blitzkrieg' approach would quickly and bloodlessly engineer regime change in Ukraine without much reaction from the Western world. Events have since shown that this was a major misjudgment on China's part, and one which I suspect they may now have come to regret.

Amidst all the current gloom and despondency, there is however one possible solution to the problem that has not been actively considered widely so far – the use of religion. Judicious application of this as a 'wildcard' might present a way of applying more effective moral and psychological influence to the Russian regime; it might also possibly help calm Putin's obviously troubled mind by providing a ‘way out’ of the desperate situation he has got himself and his country into. Here's why I think this might help....

Putin is a baptised and practicing member of the Russian Orthodox Church, and has shown deep religious tendencies since his rise to power. Indeed, he believes that Ukraine, as the old centre of the Eastern Orthodox church of which the Russian church is a part, is vital to its integrity as a whole. Re-unification of the Ukrainian and Russian communions of this church is one of the drivers of his obsession to reabsorb Ukraine into the Russian ‘fold’ (see Ref. 1 for some background). Also, throughout history, leaders waging war almost invariably believe their God(s) to be on their side, and actively utilise this to justify their actions to their followers and subjects. Putin will be no exception to this.

Pope Francis has already appealed a number of times for a cessation of hostilities on humanitarian grounds. There is now a move to actually expel the Russian Orthodox Church from the World Council of Churches for failing to condemn the atrocities Putin's military have committed in Ukraine. I believe it is possible that a joint appeal now by the Pope and the head of Putin’s own church, Archbishop Kirill, echoing the world’s condemnation of the slaughter on moral and theological grounds, and implying that God was definitely not on his side, might strike a ‘chord’. 

The implication that his immortal soul could already be at risk because of his actions could just give Putin pause for thought. This could bring pressure to bear to cease his self-styled crusade and allow a return to sanity and leave the way open for his redemption. Even if Putin himself failed to respond to this, his acolytes might be sufficiently rattled by the implications for their spiritual futures to think again.

Intervention by religious leaders in world-shaping conflicts such as this is not new – a well-concealed intervention behind the scenes during the Cuban missile crisis in 1961 by Pope John XXIII was instrumental in reaching a settlement, and arguably may have saved us from nuclear destruction at the time. I believe similar action now could do so again.

There is ample moral justification for such an intervention – many thousands of innocent civilians have already died at the hands of Putin’s army during the current campaign, and in the 8-year Donbas conflict preceding it. The Red Army have also taken far heavier casualties than expected themselves, and are becoming increasingly demoralised at their lack of progress and logistic difficulties, to say nothing of their reluctance to maim and kill their Slavic brethren. 

Thanks to the extent of modern video coverage, our existing footage alone will provide ample proof that war crimes have already been committed, and commanders directing operations on the ground will realise that they won't be exempt from the legal and moral fallout from this. An interesting recent development (10th March) saw a member of the Russian military openly advocating an end to the war on state television. Given the Kremlin's stranglehold on the media in the past, this is 'escape' of adverse views is a strong indication that all is not well with the rank and file, and may be the prelude to action. Many younger Russians in particular are unhappy with their country's 'plight' and see Putin's actions as 'regressive' and not in their interests. 

However, only the military would be able to stage an effective coup against Putin, and we can only hope this dissent in the population at large gathers support among the military hierarchy, who were advised against the invasion by their former commanders before it started. 

On the theological front, if the Pope and Archbishop Kirill were to agree, and approach Putin jointly with an appeal to stop the destruction and return to the negotiating table, this might provide Putin with an ‘honourable’ way out of his dilemma, and many more innocent lives could be saved.

For this to work, the West and Ukraine itself would, however, need to provide concrete incentives, both to allay Russian fears on NATO expansion, and provide Putin with some evidence of a campaign 'victory' for home consumption. An agreement with the West and the Ukranian people to enable religious reunification would be one element which could be included in any negotiations. 

There is growing pressure from some members of his church for Kirill to intervene, and this will not have gone unnoticed. On the political front, a referendum of the Ukrainian people proposing Ukraine’s independence as a neutral country outside NATO with the appropriate safeguards on its territorial integrity could also be on the table. President Zelensky has very recently proposed this as a way forward in peace talks during a conference with independent Russian journalists. This would of course need agreement from the Ukrainian people, which might still prove a sticking point, given their declared willingness to fight 'to the death' in defense of their freedoms and national integrity.

What if such an appeal on religious grounds fell on deaf ears ? 

Failure to respond constructively to these proposals could be met with a threat of the ultimate religious sanction – that of excommunication. This is an option available in all Christian churches, and could be applied not only to Putin and his immediate circle, but also to his oligarchs, and to all those participating in the military campaign at commander level and above. I suspect this would at least make many in the higher echelons of Putin’s organisation stop and think about their personal futures in this world ….and that of their immortal souls in the next. A prolonged and bloody conflict and its aftermath could well see many of them 'meeting their maker' somewhat sooner than anticipated.

Whatever one’s religious views (or lack of them), this could provide an excellent opportunity for the world’s religious leaders to expunge some of the damage that religious fanaticism has done over the past four decades to the ‘image’ of religion as a whole,  and prove that it can actually be a force for good in this increasingly secular world.

How likely is it that archbishop Kirill would respond ? Sadly, recent evidence suggests that his current position remains supportive of the war, which he brands as 'holy' and a 'crusade' against orthodox Christianity. Both he and Putin see the changes in the West over the past two decades as decadent, and have a particular antipathy towards the general acceptance of homosexuality in the West, which they regard as immoral and against the teachings of the Church. Islamic fundamentalism has also long been a thorn in the flesh of Russian imperialism and provides an additional religious and political target. 

Kirill would also put himself in grave personal danger by going against Putin. One is reminded of the classic quote from our own history by Henry 2nd regarding Thomas a Becket: "..who will rid me of this troublesome priest ?...", and of Becket's eventual fate as a result. However, if Putin continues to operate 'beyond the pale' and his hold on power starts to weaken, Kirill may decide that his own salvation is more important and decide to stop backing a losing horse.... 

Above all else, if we manage to survive the current tragedy, we must find some way of preventing a single individual ever again accumulating sufficient power to destroy our society and 'world order'. The parallels with the rise of Hitler's Third Reich that have been discussed have one key difference in this respect - Hitler did not have nuclear weapons - Putin does.

If there is a silver lining to be had from all this, it is perhaps the remarkably unified response and condemnation for Putin's actions that we've seen throughout much of the civilised world. Even China has seen fit to abstain from UN resolutions condemning the war, rather than voting against them outright. It has also failed to prevent Russia's expulsion from the UNHCR. 

At home here in the UK, Brexit and all its consequences has virtually disappeared from the news, and Covid itself has all but faded into the background, despite an recent and very substantial resurgence of the virus. Notwithstanding the ridiculous emphasis on 'Partygate' we have seen in the media and parliament recently (and we will no doubt suffer its disruptive  consequences  over the coming months), which frankly beggars belief at a time when there are so many other important changes afoot, the UK population as a whole seems to be united against Putin's actions. The response of countries near and far to the plight of Ukrainians fleeing their homeland has been heartwarming. Rarely, if ever, has Europe as a whole been this united behind a just cause.

Let's hope that we can maintain and channel this force for good towards creating a more unified and less mutually hostile world. Our very future as a species may yet depend on it....

Viv

References:

1)     1) Marrin, P, National Catholic Reporter Online March 1^st 2022:  https://www.ncronline.org/news/opinion/ukraine-bleeds-pope-francis-and-russian-patriarch-kirill-could-be-negotiators

      Update 3.5.22: Some commentators are suggesting Putin is contemplating an open declaration of war against Ukraine, in retaliation for its failure to accede to his demands, and to compensate for the woeful lack of territorial gain so far achieved by his 'special operation'. 

Such a declaration would allow mass-mobilisation and the extension of conscription which Putin needs to bolster the troop numbers available to fight in the Donbas offensive. The prevailing opinion however is that, far from aiding his campaign, such a move would alienate the general Russian population even further. The more youthful section of the population is still smarting from its loss of all things Western, and the remainder are already bracing themselves for a long haul of deprivation and hardship this coming winter. We have already seen the chaotic, uncoordinated and often brutal results of using a war-naive conscript army - adding more of the same will probably do no more than put the 'final nail in the coffin' of Putin's campaign, and hasten the inevitable downfall of his regime...it would also put an end to any thoughts of a reconciliation with its neighbour, and the rest of the world, and would set Russia's progress towards re-integration into society back by many decades. 

       Update 13.6.22: Looks like Putin's health may actually be deteriorating, as predicted in my original blog. The smart money now is on Parkinson's, with Thyroid Cancer a second choice. There are a number of examples of videos where he appears to be exhibiting Parkinson's-like symptoms. Although the disease is incurable and amounts to an eventual death sentence, it can take some time, and psychosis is one well-established neuro-degenerative side-effect. Be prepared for even more unpredictability....

       Putin would do well to think carefully about comparing himself too closely with Peter the Great - he died age 52  - of gangrene.....

7.Revised 13.6.22