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  A new Covid sub-variant responsible for a surge of infections in India is giving rise to concerns that it could also lead to a significant rise in hospitalisations and deaths in the UK this autumn. Research indicates that the new variant, named Arcturus, could be significantly more infectious than previous sub-variants in the Omicron series, which are still predominant throughout Europe and the USA. Also known as Omicron sub-variant XBB.1.16, Arcturus was first identified in January and has been monitored by the World Health Organisation (WHO) since 22 March, which upgraded it to a “ variant of interest ” in mid-April. WHO reports suggest that Arcturus doesn’t so far appear to be producing symptoms any more severe than the prevalent Omicron variants.   It has only one additional mutation in the spike protein, but lab investigations so far have confirmed it does exhibit increased infectivity over the other Omicron B variants, as well as the potential for increased patho...

  I’ve often wondered what might have happened to the UK’s fortunes if David Cameron hadn’t decided to hold a referendum on EU membership in June 2016. Given his obvious desire to see us stay in EU, and the adverse public opinion on immigration and its effect on jobs in particular at the time, I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering why on earth he did…. The Background Although he had promised a referendum in the 2015 manifesto, to be held some time during the lifetime of the parliament, Cameron had plenty of wriggle room and could easily have ‘kept his powder dry’ until much later in the parliamentary term, which he had already fixed at a full 5 years. Although the precise reasons why he went so early in the parliament aren’t 100% clear, I suspect a large part of the impetus was his failure to gain significant concessions on free movement from Brussels by early 2016. A detailed examination of the issues thought to have led to his decision can be viewed here . Some commentato...